Current International Drug Situation

According to latest international estimates, approximately 316 million people worldwide use drugs. This represents about 6% of the world’s population aged 15 to 64 and indicates a growing trend in drug use on a global scale.

The number of people suffering from substance use disorders has also increased. Despite this upward trend, only a limited proportion of those in need of treatment have access to specialized services. This gap between the need for treatment and the availability of services is considered one of the most significant challenges facing public safety, health care and drug policy systems worldwide.

Breakdown of drug use by type of narcotic substance

Analysis of global drug use patterns shows the following:

• Cannabis (hashish) remains the most widely used drug in the world; the number of users is approximately 244 million.

• The number of consumers of opium and its derivatives is about 61 million people.

• More than 30 million people use amphetamines.

• The number of cocaine users is estimated at circa 25 million people.

• Ecstasy (MDMA) is used by around 21 million people.

International reports warn that growing economic instability, armed conflicts, wars and waves of migration could lead to a further increase in global drug production and consumption.

Unprecedented growth in global cocaine market

Cocaine has become the fastest-growing illicit drug market in the world. Production, trafficking, seizure volumes and consumption of this substance are all showing a steady upward trend.

Cocaine production has reached historic highs and the amount seized worldwide has also increased significantly. At the same time, the number of cocaine users is rising in many regions of the world.

According to reports, drug trafficking networks are expanding into new markets in Asia and Africa. In addition, fierce competition among criminal groups, which was previously observed mainly in Latin America, has now spread to certain regions of Western Europe and Türkiye.

The growing influence of organized crime networks on the European cocaine market is considered one of the most important factors in this transformation.

Continual expansion of synthetic drug market

Synthetic drugs continue to be one of the most dynamic sectors of the global drug market. Low production costs, ease of transport and difficulty in detection are key factors driving the growth of this market.

Majority of this segment consists of amphetamine-type stimulants (ATS), which include:

• Methamphetamine (“ice”/“glass”)

• Amphetamine

• Captagon

Synthetic opioids are also playing an increasingly significant role in the global drug market. At the same time, decline in detection rate of certain new psychoactive substances (NPS) and rise in deaths associated with their use indicate that capacity of early warning systems, market control and regulatory measures in a number of countries is failing to keep pace with the rate of production and distribution of these substances.

Captagon - a market in transition

Political and security-related changes in the Middle East have led to a transformation in the structure of Captagon production and illicit trafficking. Discovery of major production centers for this substance and changes in traditional drug trafficking routes indicate that production and distribution networks are in the process of restructuring and shifting to new regions.

Despite blows dealt to a number of production centers, flow of Captagon continues and Gulf states remain primary markets for this substance.

For instance, Saudi Arabia is considered the largest market for Captagon consumption in the region, followed by Jordan and Iraq, which are among key destination countries for this drug.

Large-scale seizures in recent years, including confiscation of tens of millions of amphetamine tablets in commercial shipments, indicate that demand remains high and that these markets remain economically attractive to criminal networks.

One of the most significant consequences of recent developments has been an increase in regional cooperation in combating trafficking of Captagon. Unlike in previous years, when Captagon was a major source of political and security tensions among countries in the region, we are now seeing broader mechanisms emerge for information sharing, operational coordination and joint action.

An unprecedented increase in the number of seizures in Arab countries during 2025 is largely attributed to this very intelligence and law enforcement collaboration.

Yet, experience in recent years shows that success in curbing supply of a single drug does not necessarily lead to a decrease in demand. In some consumer markets, particularly in Jordan, a reduction in the availability of Captagon has been accompanied by an increase in the use of substitutes, including methamphetamine, synthetic cannabinoids and certain prescription drugs.

This trend shows that, in the absence of a comprehensive policy to reduce demand, and without therapeutic and social interventions, pressure on a specific market can lead to shifts in consumption patterns and emergence of new threats (changes in behavioral patterns).

Thus, current trend does not so much signal the end of illicit production and trafficking of Captagon as it indicates a shift from a centralized regional model to a decentralized, transnational, and flexible ecosystem—a situation that makes it more difficult for countries in the region to detect and address this threat and underscores, more than ever, the need to strengthen intelligence cooperation, border control, financial monitoring of drug trafficking networks and adoption of multidimensional approaches to countering drug trafficking.

Organized crime and economy of illicit drug trade

Profits from drug trafficking amount to hundreds of billions of dollars annually. Organized crime groups are constantly refining their methods, which include the following:

• Relocation of production to regions with weak government oversight;

• Use of sophisticated chemical methods to conceal substances;

• Encryption technologies and new darknet platforms;

• Expansion and diversification of routes and distribution networks.

International studies show that to effectively combat these networks, it is necessary to focus on financial structures and key links in drug trafficking chain, rather than solely on seizure and confiscation of drugs.

Recent reports from international organizations, specialized blockchain analysis firms, judicial and financial authorities indicate that money laundering methods associated with drug trafficking have undergone a significant transformation in recent years.

A transition has taken place from traditional methods of cash transfers and “hawala” systems to newer financial technologies, virtual assets and complex mechanisms for value transfer. In this context, cryptocurrencies, and especially stablecoins, have become one of the most important tools for transferring and concealing proceeds from drug trafficking.

Reports from specialized organizations indicate that some organized crime networks, after collecting proceeds from drug trafficking in consumer markets, convert a portion of these funds into digital assets and “launder” them by transferring through decentralized exchanges, intermediary addresses and cross-chain asset transfer mechanisms.

Simultaneously, cooperation has expanded between organizations involved in drug trafficking and informal money transfer networks. These networks, using underground banking system, informal currency transactions, purchase of goods on behalf of commercial intermediaries and other money transfer mechanisms, enable movement of profits from drug trafficking outside formal financial system.

In some cases, in addition to money laundering, these networks are also involved in supply of chemical precursors used in illicit production of drugs.

In addition, trade-based money laundering (TBML) still is considered one of the most widespread and sophisticated methods used by criminal networks. Using shell companies, issuing fictitious invoices, exploiting legitimate commercial activities and investing in sectors such as transportation, tourism, retail and real estate are among the most important tools for giving proceeds of drug trafficking appearance of legitimacy.

Analytical reports also point to an increase in criminals’ use of new digital financial instruments, including crypto ATMs, virtual asset-based gambling platforms, decentralized financial services (DeFi), non-fungible tokens (NFTs) and networks of so-called “money mules” (a person who, knowingly or unknowingly, transfers funds derived from drug trafficking on behalf of others in order to conceal true origin of those funds).

A “money mule” acts as an intermediary in money transfers and helps drug traffickers cover their financial tracks. Due to regulatory restrictions and difficulties in verifying users’ identities, these tools are increasingly attracting attention of drug cartels.

Despite ever more complicated money laundering methods, assessments by international organizations indicate that the ability to track transactions using blockchain technology has become one of the most effective tools for detecting, tracing and confiscating proceeds from financial crimes.

Accordingly, organizations such as INTERPOL and the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) emphasize the need to strengthen international cooperation, exchange financial information and build technical capacity to combat misuse of new financial technologies by criminals.

Conclusion

Analysis of recent developments and changes in the field of drug control in various regions of the world shows emergence of common trends that could, in medium and long term, have a significant impact on patterns of drug production, transit, distribution and consumption at the international level.

These shifts suggest that global drug market is undergoing a new phase of geographic restructuring, operational diversity and growing complexity.

Firstly, multiple reports of unprecedented and sometimes record-breaking cocaine seizures in countries such as Australia, Brazil, and a number of others indicates not only increased capabilities on the part of law enforcement agencies but also a significant rise in cocaine production in South America and expansion of new transit routes, particularly in maritime transport, toward consumer markets in Asia, Oceania, Europe and Africa.

This trend reflects expanding scope of transnational criminal networks and growth of their operational capacity on a global scale. At the same time, drug cartels—using the latest technologies and sophisticated methods to conceal drugs and traffic—have significantly increased their flexibility and adaptability.

Use of unmanned aerial vehicles, semi-submersible vessels, multi-layered containers and concealment of cargo shipments among legitimate goods such as salt, timber, bananas, frozen meat and other commercial products indicates that these networks are shifting toward more elaborate and less risky operational models.

As a result, law enforcement agencies are often forced to confront threats that are rapidly evolving and becoming more complex.

On the other hand, increasing variety and high psychoactivity of new narcotic and psychoactive substances, particularly synthetic opioids, ketamine and new types of semisynthetic cannabinoids, have become one of the most significant security challenges on a global scale.

Distribution of these substances—due to their high potency, unknown composition and difficulty in identifying—poses new risks and challenges.

Another important change is relative stability of heroin supply on global markets, despite a significant reduction in poppy cultivation in Afghanistan.

This suggests that available accumulated stockpiles, well-established distribution networks and advances in processing and supply chain management technologies can delay the impact of supply-restriction policies for a significant period of time.

Conversely, a number of problems related to counter-narcotics efforts in various countries shows that striking a balance between the need to gather intelligence to identify and dismantle major criminal networks and the need to immediately prevent social harm caused by drug trafficking remains one of the most complex and unresolved issues in the fields of policy and law enforcement.

With regard to international developments, Libya’s growing role as a new route and transit hub for cocaine bound for Europe and the Middle East indicates a gradual expansion of drug trafficking networks into regions characterized by weak governance, political instability and limited border controls.

This change, along with transformation of traditional smuggling routes, could have significant implications for security of countries in the Mediterranean region, North Africa and the Middle East.

Final assessment

Taken together, the latest facts and developments indicate that global drug market is entering a phase characterized by greater complexity, diversity, and geographic dispersion, a phase in which criminal networks have significantly enhanced capacity for innovation, rapid movement and exploitation of vulnerabilities in security systems.

Under these circumstances, relying exclusively on conventional approaches based on supply-side restrictions will have limited effectiveness and the need to strengthen regional and international cooperation, develop information-sharing mechanisms, apply new technologies and adopt comprehensive, multidimensional approaches is becoming increasingly evident.

Mehdi Sadeghi, Iran's liaison officer at CARICC